Good morning, team. The 30-year fixed eased to 7.37% this morning — a small step down, not a trend yet. Texas third-quarter numbers are in: prices slipped a little in San Antonio and Austin, supply sits at five and a half months statewide, and oil is back above $110 a barrel. The Fed meets next week, October 27–28. Here is what to say and how to work it.
Say it this way: “Bankrate puts the 30-year fixed at 7.37% this morning, down from 7.47% yesterday, and Freddie Mac’s weekly average held at 7.40% on October 15. That helps the payment a little — plan on today’s number, not on a big drop.”
Say it this way: “Texas has five and a half months of homes for sale, San Antonio has nearly six months, and more than 1 in 4 listings in both San Antonio and the Austin area have taken a price cut. Ask for the credit, the buydown, or the repair — sellers are saying yes.”
Say it this way: “Markets price about an 86% chance the Fed holds next week. December is the meeting to watch — price and lock on today’s facts, not on hope.”
September sales totaled 2,793 homes at a median price of $302,999, down about 2% year over year (San Antonio Board of REALTORS®, September 2026, released October 9). In the third quarter, San Antonio prices fell 1.0% year over year (Texas REALTORS®, Q3 2026, released October 20).
Supply is the story: 5.95 months of inventory and 17,155 active listings, up 4%. Homes averaged 88 days on market and closed at 92.4% of original list price. On the listing side, the median list price was $320,374, down 2.9%, with more than 1 in 4 listings carrying a price cut (Realtor.com, September 2026).
Pending sales fell 16% to 2,091 even as new listings rose 3% to 4,172. Buyers are looking, not rushing — price and terms have to earn the contract.
September sales were 2,223 homes, down 14.8% year over year, at a median price of $421,000, up 1.4% (Unlock MLS, September 2026). In the third quarter, Austin prices fell 1.2% year over year (Texas REALTORS®, Q3 2026).
The metro carried 13,465 active listings and 5.4 months of supply, and homes closed at 92.7% of original list price.
The September median asking price was $446,450, down 9.8% year over year, and 27.3% of listings had taken a price cut (Realtor.com, September 2026).
Williamson County median was $395,000 (down 2.5%), with 5.0 months of supply (Unlock MLS, September 2026).
Travis County median was $497,400 (up 2.6%), with 5.8 months of supply.
Hays County median was $399,900 (up 10.8%) on slower sales — 294 homes sold, down 30.5% — with active listings up 4.9% to 1,898.
Statewide, Texas closed 87,862 sales in the third quarter, down 2.4%, at a median of $333,628, with 5.5 months of inventory and a typical home selling in 99 days (Texas REALTORS®, Q3 2026, released October 20).
Every ZIP is its own market — price and advise hyper-locally.
Price cuts are at a record pace nationally: 22% of U.S. listings took a price drop in the four weeks ending October 11 — the highest share in Redfin’s records — and asking prices fell 0.3% year over year, the first decline since March (Redfin).
Demand is soft, not gone: national pending sales were down 12.7% year over year in that same four-week window (Redfin). The buyers who remain are serious and pre-approved — work them well.
Negotiation is the product now: with supply at 5.4 months in the Austin metro and 5.95 months in San Antonio, seller credits for closing costs, temporary rate buydowns, and inspection-based adjustments are the tools that move a file. Builders are competing on incentives too.
Pricing discipline wins: homes priced to today’s comparable sales are closing; homes priced on hope are funding the price-cut statistics above.
Bankrate, as of Wednesday, October 21, 2026, 6:30 AM:
| Loan | Rate | APR |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year conventional fixed | 7.37% | 7.44% |
| 15-year fixed | 6.75% | 6.86% |
| 30-year FHA | 7.21% | 7.26% |
| 30-year VA | 7.17% | 7.23% |
| 30-year jumbo | 7.45% | 7.48% |
Freddie Mac put the national 30-year average at 7.40% as of October 15, 2026 — unchanged from the week before, and up from 6.27% a year ago. The 15-year average was 6.71%.
For illustration: principal and interest on a $400,000, 30-year loan at 7.37% is about $2,761/month — before taxes, insurance, and HOA.
The 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.12% Wednesday morning (CNBC, October 21) — still high, and the reason mortgage rates stay high even on a quiet week.
Always confirm a same-day quote with Jenn Bailey / our lender partners for your client’s file. Do not quote these averages as a promise.
Families are moving into Heritage Heights — Cavalry Family Housing has completed the first nine new homes, the first built on the installation since 2018, under Lendlease’s $420 million, five-year housing plan. Barracks modernization and on-post housing renovations continue through at least 2028. No single new major unit move was confirmed in today’s search — the steady investment is the demand story for Killeen and Harker Heights, and Permanent Change of Station families need payment-first guidance at today’s VA rate of 7.17%.
Temple, Belton, and Waco continue to draw relocating families priced out of Austin, healthcare professionals following medical-campus growth, and military-connected households cycling around Fort Cavazos. Work every relocation lead for both the sale and the corridor landing spot.
Blue Origin’s Constellation Park in Hutto — announced October 8 by the Governor’s office at $554.78 million with more than 2,000 jobs expected — plus Samsung’s October 15 announcement of Central Texas workforce investment keep the north-corridor job pipeline full.
At least 18 vessel attacks were recorded over the past two weeks (Kpler, via Reuters, October 21), a supertanker caught fire after striking a sea mine south of the Strait of Hormuz, and Houthi forces claimed attacks on Saudi energy sites on Monday. Attacks have spread beyond the strait into the Gulf of Oman.
Oil rose again Wednesday: Brent crude rose to $110.38 a barrel Wednesday morning, up 1.5%, after touching a five-month high of $111.99 on Tuesday (Reuters, October 21). U.S. crude and product inventories also drew down, adding support.
Inflation is still the rate story: September consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year and producer prices jumped 1.3% in one month — the largest rise since March 2022 — with energy the main driver. That is why the Fed, in its quiet period before the October 27–28 meeting, is priced at about an 86% chance of a hold (Kalshi, October 21), with December the live meeting.
What it means for Texas: high oil helps parts of our economy and hurts every buyer at the pump and at closing. Stay on today’s math, keep pre-approvals current, and have concession structures ready before the Fed speaks on October 28.
Fall showing readiness: clear leaves and gutters, check exterior lighting for shorter days, and keep Halloween decor welcoming, not distracting, for photos and showings.
Pre-winter prep for listings and past clients: heating check, hose bibs and pipes on the winter list, and fireplace safety before the first cold snap.
Money calendar: Texas property tax bills arrive in October — remind owners to verify homestead exemptions and escrow, and to calendar payment deadlines.
Pipeline push: use the slower fall window for past-client touches and Permanent Change of Station planning conversations before the holiday season compresses timelines.
From Ian: Team — a tenth of a point down is not a rescue, and it does not need to be. The agent who wins this week takes the small good news, tells the truth about it in plain words, and uses the leverage buyers actually have today — choice, time, and sellers who are adjusting. That is Military precision, Family Heart in practice: precise on the facts, honest and transparent with every client, and steady for the families counting on us. Knowledge is the edge — go earn it this week.
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Sources: Bankrate national rate survey, October 21, 2026 · Freddie Mac weekly rate average, October 15, 2026 · Texas REALTORS® Q3 2026 report, released October 20, 2026 · Unlock MLS September 2026 Central Texas Housing Report, released October 13, 2026 · San Antonio Board of REALTORS® September 2026 report, released October 9, 2026 · Realtor.com monthly housing data, September 2026 · Redfin housing data, four weeks ending October 11, 2026 · Reuters, October 21, 2026 · CNBC, October 21, 2026 · Kalshi market pricing via PredictionMarketsPicks, October 21, 2026
Ian Alkire · Broker Owner · Infinity Family Properties & Associates
Infinity Family Group, LLC · https://www.infinityfamilygroup.com
TX Lic. #750064-SA | Brokerage Lic. #9015904-BB
Internal team briefing — not for distribution outside Infinity Family Group.