Market Pulse

Central Texas / Tri-City market snapshot

San Antonio

• September sales totaled 2,793 homes at a median price of $302,999, down about 2% year over year (San Antonio Board of REALTORS®, September 2026, released October 9). In the third quarter, San Antonio prices fell 1.0% year over year (Texas REALTORS®, Q3 2026, released October 20). September remains the latest full month published — no newer board data is out yet.
• Supply is the story: 5.95 months of inventory and 17,155 active listings, up 4%. Homes averaged 88 days on market and closed at 92.4% of original list price. On the listing side, the median list price was $320,374, down 2.9%, with 25.4% of listings carrying a price cut (Realtor.com, September 2026).
• Pending sales fell 16% to 2,091 even as new listings rose 3% to 4,172. Buyers are looking, not rushing — price and terms have to earn the contract.
• New homes: San Antonio sold 1,052 new homes in September at an average price of $332,867 (Texas New Home Sales report, via GlobeNewswire, October 22).

Austin / Round Rock / San Marcos

• September sales were 2,223 homes, down 14.8% year over year, at a median price of $421,000, up 1.4% (Unlock MLS, September 2026). In the third quarter, the metro median was $420,000, down 2.3% for the quarter (Unlock MLS).
• The metro carried 13,465 active listings and 5.4 months of supply, pending sales eased just 1.8% to 2,313, and homes closed at 92.7% of original list price.
• 27.3% of Austin-area listings had taken a price cut in September (Realtor.com, September 2026). New-home sales in Austin were 735 in September at an average price of $466,663.

The corridor

• Williamson County median was $395,000 (down 2.5%), with 765 sales and 5.0 months of supply (Unlock MLS, September 2026).
• Travis County median was $497,400 (up 2.6%), with 1,031 sales and 5.8 months of supply.
• Hays County median was $399,900 (up 10.8%) on slower sales — 294 homes sold, down 30.5% — with active listings up 4.9% to 1,898 and 4.8 months of supply.
• Statewide, Texas closed 87,862 sales in the third quarter, down 2.4%, at a median of $333,628, with 5.5 months of inventory and a typical home selling in 99 days (Texas REALTORS®, Q3 2026, released October 20).
• Every ZIP is its own market — price and advise hyper-locally.

Market trends

• National demand is still at record lows: pending sales fell 14.4% year over year in the four weeks ending October 18 — the lowest level in Redfin's records — while 21.7% of listings took a price drop and the median monthly payment hit $2,796 at a 7.4% rate (Redfin, October 22). New listings in the San Antonio metro fell 17.4% year over year in that window, one of the largest drops in the country — sellers are waiting, too.
• Loan demand slipped again last week: total mortgage applications fell 5.3% and purchase applications fell 7% in the week ending October 16, even as the average conforming 30-year rate eased to 7.41% from 7.50% (Mortgage Bankers Association, released October 21). A small rate dip alone is not bringing buyers back — the payment story and the concession story are what move a file.
• New-home prices are easing too: the statewide average new-home price fell to $419,016 in September, down 2.2% year over year, and statewide pending sales fell 11.7% (Texas New Home Sales report, October 22). Builders are competing on price and incentives — use that in every negotiation.
• Pricing discipline wins: homes priced to today's comparable sales are closing; homes priced on hope are funding the price-cut statistics above.

Interest rate check

Bankrate, as of Saturday, October 24, 2026, 6:30 AM:

• Freddie Mac put the national 30-year average at 7.32% as of October 22, 2026 — down from 7.40% the week before, the first weekly decline since late August, and up from 6.19% a year ago. The 15-year average was 6.68%. That weekly print is still the latest; the next one lands Thursday.
• For illustration: principal and interest on a $400,000, 30-year loan at 7.36% is about $2,759/month — before taxes, insurance, and HOA.
• The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.99% (Wall Street Journal, October 23) — back up near 5% as oil jumped, after Thursday's sharp drop. Yields are moving both ways fast; a quote from Monday is not a quote for Friday.
• Always confirm a same-day quote with Jenn Bailey / our lender partners before you rely on it. Do not treat these averages as a promise.

Military / corporate relocation news

• Fort Cavazos: Heritage Heights keeps growing — Cavalry Family Housing's first nine new homes there were the first built on the installation since 2018, under Lendlease's $420 million, five-year housing plan, and more than 375 new Heritage Heights homes have been completed since the work began (DVIDS; Fort Hood Sentinel). Barracks and housing modernization continues through at least 2028. No single new major unit move was confirmed in today's search — the steady investment is the demand story for Killeen and Harker Heights, and Permanent Change of Station families need payment-first guidance at today's VA rate of 7.16%.
• I-35 corridor: Temple, Belton, and Waco continue to draw relocating families priced out of Austin, healthcare professionals following medical-campus growth, and military-connected households cycling around Fort Cavazos. Work every relocation lead for both the sale and the corridor landing spot.
• Austin corporate: Blue Origin's Constellation Park in Hutto — announced October 8 by the Governor's office at $554.78 million with more than 2,000 jobs expected at an average salary near $88,000 — plus Samsung's October 16 announcement of a second fab in Taylor, on a $44 billion site with about 3,500 direct jobs across the campus, keep the north-corridor job pipeline full.

World events affecting real estate

Military-conflict news

• Strait of Hormuz — claims and counterclaims: on Friday, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy said two supertankers struck naval mines in the southern part of the strait and their crews abandoned ship. Those claims have not been confirmed on their own, and President Trump said Thursday that Iran was inventing tanker hits to push oil prices up before the November 3 midterms (Reuters, October 23–24). A maritime safety tracker counted 28 attacks on commercial ships in and near the strait so far in October. Earlier this week, Houthi attacks hit a civilian airport in Dammam and a Saudi oil field, and Saudi Aramco moved its Dhahran headquarters staff out on Thursday (Reuters, October 22). Treat every headline as unconfirmed until a named source verifies it — and expect oil to react first either way.

Financial news

• Oil closed at a six-month high Friday: Brent crude settled at $116.72 a barrel, up 3.14% on the day and 6% on the week, and U.S. crude settled at $103.27 (Reuters; Wall Street Journal, October 23).
• Stocks fell Friday: the Dow fell 1.23%, the S&P 500 fell 0.52%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.21%, while energy stocks rose 2.5% to a record (Wall Street Journal closing tables, October 23).
• Households feel squeezed: the University of Michigan's final consumer mood reading for October was 48.0 — the second-lowest final reading ever recorded — with buyers expecting inflation of 4.7% over the next year and regular gasoline averaging $4.29 a gallon (Reuters, October 23).
• What it means for Texas: high oil helps parts of our economy and hurts every buyer at the pump and at closing. The Fed announces Wednesday, October 28. Stay on today's math, keep pre-approvals current, and have concession structures ready before the Fed speaks.